What will be waiting for humanity in 2050? What to prepare their children?
As soon as the growing pace of change, and is changing the very concept of man, his nature, his cognitive structures. Forget programming - the best skill that children should learn, is rethinking. "The invention of the bicycle." What will the next 30 years for mankind? What awaits us in 2050?
Part One: change - the only constant
Mankind has found unprecedented revolutions, all of our old stories crumble and no new to replace it appears. How do we prepare ourselves and our children to a world of unprecedented transformations and radical uncertainty? A child born today will be thirty in 2050. If all goes well, he will live until 2100, and perhaps will remain an active citizen in the 22 century. What to teach child to survive and thrive in 2050 or 22 th century in the world? What skills he needs to, he got the job, I realized that there is around him and groped his way in the maze of life?
Unfortunately, no one knows what will be the world in 2050 - not to mention about 2100. We can not answer these questions. Of course, people have never been able to accurately predict the future. But today, to make it more difficult than ever, because as soon as the technology will allow us to change the body, brains and minds of people, we have nothing we can not be sure - even in what previously seemed immutable and eternal.
A thousand years ago, in 1018, there were a lot of things in the future, as people did not know, but they were sure that the basic features of human society will not change. If you lived in China in 1018, you would not know that by 1050 the empire Son fall, China will invade from the north, and the plague would kill millions of people. But you would know that in 1050, most people will still grow rice and engage the yarn, the rulers will rule the people, men will dominate women, life expectancy is about 40 years, and the human body will remain the same. Therefore, in 1018 the poor Chinese parents teach their children how to grow risk or spinning silk and rich parents were taught how to read Confucius, beautiful writing, or to fight on horseback - and the girls were taught to be humble and helpful. Obviously, in 1050 these skills were still needed. On the contrary, today we have no idea how it will look like China or the rest of the world in 2050. We do not know what people will make a living as will operate the army and the bureaucracy, what are the gender relations. Some people are likely to live much longer than they are today, and the human body itself will undergo unprecedented changes due to bioengineering and brain-computer interface. Much of what children learn today will not make sense in 2050.
Currently, too many schools are involved in a grimace of information. In the past, it made sense, because the information was fragmented and even the slow trickle of information carefully censored. If you lived in a small town in Mexico City in 1800, you would have been hard to learn more about the big world. Radio, television, daily newspapers or public libraries did not exist. Even if you have been educated and have access to the private library, it could be read only novels and religious books. Spanish Empire carefully censored all the texts, which were published in its territory, and missed very few outside. The same thing would happen if you lived in Russia, India, Turkey and China. When there were modern schools that teach everyone to read and write and give a basic knowledge of geography, history and biology, it was a significant improvement.
In contrast, in the 21st century we are drowning in a huge amount of information that even the censors did not try to block. Instead, they are busy spreading disinformation or diversion us in unnecessary detail. If you lived in a provincial Mexican town and you have had a smartphone, you have spent many lives just by reading Wikipedia browsing TED speech and online courses. No government can not hide from you the information that he does not like. On the other hand, people are very easy to deceive. People from all over the world one click away from the information on the bombing of Aleppo and melting glaciers in the Arctic, but too many controversial issues, to choose what to believe.
In such a world, the last thing a teacher should give his pupils - more information. It is already too much. Instead, people need the ability to comprehend information, call the difference between important and unimportant, and, above all, to integrate pieces of information into a coherent picture of the world.
In truth, this was the ideal of Western liberal education for centuries, but until now, many Western schools rather poorly matched him. Teachers allowed themselves to interpret data train, rather than to encourage students to "think with your head." Because of the fear of the authoritarian liberal school experienced a special horror of the great narratives. They assumed that as long as we give the students a lot of data, and the installation of freedom, students will create their own picture of the world, and even if this generation will not be able to synthesize all the data in a consistent and meaningful history of the world, will have plenty of time to create a good synthesis in the future. Now we have time left. The decisions that we will take in the next few decades will change the future of life itself, and we will be able to make these decisions based only on our present view of the world. If this generation will not be able to make a coherent picture of the cosmos, the future life will be decided randomly.
Part Two: temperature rises
In addition to information, most schools also pay too much attention to providing students a set of pre-defined skills such as solving differential equations, writing computer code in C ++, the definition of chemical elements in a test tube or the translation from the Chinese. But we have no idea about what it would be like the world of work and the market in 2050, so we do not know what specific skills needed for people. We can force children to write in C ++ or speak in Chinese and find that in 2050 the AI can be programmed in much better people, and the new Google Translate copes with the translation is better than any human. What do we teach? Many experts in the field of pedagogy believe that students need to develop the "four R": critical thinking, communication, collaboration of (that is, to learn to work together) and creativity (ie creative). The most important is the ability to cope with change, learn new things and to keep composure in unusual situations. To keep pace with the world in 2050, you will need not only to invent new ideas and products - you have to rethink and reinvent itself over and over again.
As the pace of change is increasing with time, changing not only the economy, but also the very meaning of "to be a man." In 1848, the "Communist Manifesto" proclaimed that "everything solid melts into air." Marx and Engels, however, mostly thought about the social and economic structures. By 2048 the physical and cognitive structures also melt in the air - in the clouds of data bits.
In 1848, millions of people lost their jobs in the agriculture and went to the big cities to work in factories. But getting to the big city, they do not have to change their sex, or to add a sixth sense. And if they found a job at a textile factory that they could expect to stay in this profession for a lifetime.
By 2048 people can be faced with migration into cyberspace, floating gender-sensitive and a new experience that gives computer implants. If they find a job and a sense of the development of modern fashion game in three-dimensional virtual reality, not only in ten years this profession, but all the jobs that require the same level of artistic creativity can just go to the AI. Therefore, in 25 you will represent yourself on a dating site as a "twenty-five heterosexual woman who lives in London and works in a trendy store." In 35 years you will already be "gender does not determine the identity of which passes update of age, neocortical activity which largely takes place in the virtual world of" new space ", and the aim of all life is creativity in the fashion field, which is not dared any one designer to this. " In 45 years as a definition for a dating site, and self-determination will be different. You only have to wait until the algorithm can not find (or create) your ideal couple. Regarding the creation of fashionable designs, algorithms, so you will surpass that of your dubious achievements of the past years will be possible only to make people laugh. And yet, in 45 years you will be ahead of many decades of radical change. Please do not take this scenario seriously. No one can predict the specific changes that await us. Any specific scenario will be milk. If someone will describe to you the world of mid-21 th century, and you feel it is absolutely fantastic, it is likely to be true. But if someone will describe to you the world of the mid-21 th century, and it will not sound fantastic - it's sure to be true. We do not know details, but certainly known only: change is inevitable.
Such profound changes may well transform the basic structure of life, making the short duration of its feature. Since time immemorial, life was divided into two complementary parts: the period of study, followed by a period of work. In the first part of the life you accumulate the information, develop skills, folding picture of the world and created a stable personality. Even if you're 15 years old spend most of the day working on the family rice field, you learn how to cultivate rice, how to build relationships with greedy traders from the big city and to solve problems with other villagers. In the second part of your life you are relying on the knowledge and skills to navigate the world, earn a livelihood and to contribute to society. Of course, even at 50 years old you continue to learn new things about rice, of merchants and of conflicts, but it's small changes in the well-honed skills.
By the mid-21st century, accelerating the change, combined with increased life expectancy will make the traditional model obsolete. Life will be bursting at the seams and between the different periods of life will be less and less duration. "Who am I?" Becomes very frequent and important issue.
This is likely to be associated with tremendous stress. Change is almost always stressful, and after a certain age, most people simply do not like change. When you are 15 years old, your whole life changes. Your body grows, your mind develops, deepen your relationship. Everything is in motion, everything is new. You invent yourself. Most teenagers it's scary, but at the same time exciting. Before you open up new horizons, you're ready to conquer the world. Do you prefer stability. You are so much invested in their skills, career, personality and view of the world that you do not want to start all over again. The harder you work at something, the harder it is to quit and do something else. You can enjoy new experiences and minor changes, but most people in their 50s do not want to change his personality deeply.
There are a neurobiological cause. Although the adult brain is more flexible and changeable than it was thought to be, it still is not as malleable as the adolescent brain. Reconnection of neurons and synapses weave - damn hard work. But in the 21st century you can hardly afford to stability. If you try to cling to some kind of stable personality, work or picture of the world, you run the risk of being left behind. Given that life expectancy will increase, you might have to spend many decades in the role of an ignorant old man. To stay fit - not only economically, but also socially - you will need the ability to continually learn and re-invent themselves, especially at such a young age - 50 years.
Since all countries will become the new norm, your past experience, and the past experience of all mankind will become less reliable guide. People as individuals and mankind as a whole, will increasingly have to deal with things which had never before encountered. Such as superintelligent machine body design, algorithms for manipulating your emotions, rapid climatic disasters and the need to change the profession every ten years. What to do when hit by an unexpected situation? What to do when you drown the flow of information and there is absolutely no way to absorb and analyze it? How to live in a world in which deep uncertainty - not a bug, but a feature?
To survive and thrive in a world need flexibility in mind and large reserves of emotional equilibrium. You have to constantly deal with the unknown, and to abandon what you know well. Unfortunately, the education of children greeting the unknown, and the preservation of their emotional balance - much harder than teaching them physics or causes of the First World War. You can not learn mental flexibility by reading a book or listening to a lecture. Teachers themselves are not enough mental flexibility, which will require 21, because they are the product of the old education system. The Industrial Revolution bequeathed to us the theory of the conveyor. In the city center there is a large concrete building, divided into a plurality of identical rooms, each of which are school desks and chairs. On a call you go into one of these rooms with 30 other children born in one year with you. Each hour consists of adults and begin to talk. They pay for this government. One of them talks about the shape of the Earth, the other person about the past, a third of the human body. On this model you can laugh all you want, and almost all would agree that, regardless of a person's past achievements, they are no longer relevant. But we have no other alternative. Especially, that could be put into a rural area of Mexico City.
Part Three: hacking people
The best advice I could give 15-year-old, stuck in outdated school somewhere in Mexico, India or Alabama: do not rely on adults too. Most of them think straight, but does not understand the world. Previously, adults could rely on, because they knew the world, and the world was changing slowly. But the 21st century will be different. Due to the increasing pace of change, you can never be sure that they are trying to tell you adults: eternal wisdom or outdated prejudice.
On that same trust then? On the technology? But it is even more risky bet. Technology can help in many ways, but also get too much power over your life, you become a hostage of this agenda. Thousands of years ago, people invented agriculture, but this technology has enriched a tiny elite, enslaving the majority. Many people worked day and night, carrying buckets of water and collecting corn under the scorching sun. It can happen to you.
In technology there's nothing wrong. If you know what you want out of life, technology can help you with this. But if you do not know what you want out of life, technology is easiest form your goals for you and take control of your life. Moreover, that technology is a better understanding of people, and soon you will serve them, and they are not you. We have seen all of these zombies that roam the streets that were joined to face smartphones? Do you think they manage technology or technology control them? Can you trust yourself then? With the improvement of biotechnology and machine learning to manipulate the deep emotions and desires of people it is becoming easier, and to follow the heart is more dangerous than ever. When the "Coca-Cola", Amazon, Baidu or government knows for what strings to pull your soul, if you can maintain a difference between himself and the result of their marketing professionals?
To succeed in this difficult task you will need to work very hard to get to know your operating system. Know who you are and what you want out of life. This, of course, a relatively old piece of advice: Know Thyself. For thousands of years, philosophers and prophets called the people to know yourself. But in the 21st century, this advice will be more relevant than ever, because in contrast to the days of Lao Tzu and Socrates, today you are serious opponents. "Coca-Cola", Amazon, Baidu and the government are trying to hack you. Not your smartphone, computer or bank account - they want to break into your organic operating system. You've heard that we are living in the era of computer hackers, but it is only half the truth. We live in the era of hacking people.
Algorithms are watching you. They are watching to see where you go, what to buy, from whom to meet. Soon they will be watching your steps, your breathing and heartbeat. They rely on big data and machine learning to get to know you better and better. And as soon as these algorithms will know you better than you know yourself, they will be able to take control of you and manipulate you, and you do not even know. You will live in "The Matrix" or "Truman Show". Your identity will be limited to algorithms that you manage.
Of course, you can be happy, giving all the powers of algorithms and trusting them to decide something for you and for the rest of the world. If so, sit back and enjoy the ride. You do not need to do anything. Algorithms take care of everything. If you want to keep control of his personal existence and the future life, you need to move faster than algorithms than the Amazon and the government, and to know yourself before it will make it. Leave all illusions behind. They are very heavy. According to the materials of Wired
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