A model that can predict forest fires for 20 minutes prior to ignition
Mankind has pretty well learn to deal with small fires and even very successfully mastered various methods of fire fighting. By quenching with air technology to "taking away" of oxygen, thus depriving the fire burning the most important component, and causes it to fade on their own. However, in the face of the raging elements people are still powerless. And extensive forest fires are still a huge problem. But the problem is known, it is easier to prevent than to deal with its consequences. And it is for this model has been developed that can predict wildfires for 20 minutes before the fire.
Forest fires - an uncontrollable force, the appearance of which can be predicted
How to predict the fire?
According to EurikAlert edition of a new study are researchers from the laboratory study of Brigham Young University fires. They managed to detect some signs of fires and use them to construct a system for predicting fires. If you want to be aware of such an event - we recommend to subscribe to our news channel in the Telegram. There are regularly out a lot of interesting materials.
We have been working in "small scale", which gave us some advantage. If earlier similar studies conducted on large forest areas, we have studied how heat and other conditions that lead to fire, impact on forest flora - said professor of Brigham Young University, Thomas Fletcher. We want to make the fire more predictable, conducting experiments in a well-controlled environment.
The recent forest fires in Siberia were visible even from space
For their experiments, Fletcher and his colleagues were charged in a refractory vessel with the function of a thermogravimetric analyzer leaves 14 species of shrubs and slowly heats up to 800 degrees Celsius. Watching as leaf burn, they classified the rate at which the plant is combusted and chemical substances released by these processes. In addition, the researchers also compared the effect of two sources of heat: convection (smodelirovavav fires, spread by wind power) and thermal (arising, in fact, because of the direct contact with fire).
See also: Scientists predict drought and fires using orbiting satellites.
Research has shown that the chemical composition of shrubs is very important in how fast they are destroyed before you start to burn. This is important because the type of plants that grow in the woods, is well known. And even before the plant began to burn, it already starts to produce certain chemicals. These substances can easily be found if you set in the woods, where there are a certain kind of plant, analyzers and sensors, the "mood" on these plants and emissions of chemical substances.
Now there are models that can predict the development of fire for a few days in advance. But analysis of the data with them takes about two weeks and requires a lot of computing power. We also offer an alternative. Yes, our forecasts are not so much "directed to the future." We can provide answers on how a fire will spread in the next 20 minutes. Our model can help in matters of how to understand the behavior of fire and to predict their appearance in the short term.
Now American scientists have checked your details and soon want to repeat the experience with the use of trees and herbs growing in the woods. This can make them even more accurate forecasts.